Global Market Snapshot 23rd June 2025

Weekly Market Outlook: Rising Geopolitical Tensions and Trade Disputes Fuel Market Caution

Last week, global markets trended cautiously amid growing fears of a full-scale escalation in trade frictions and worsening geopolitical instability in the Middle East. While initial diplomatic contacts offered some hope, the lack of substantive progress in negotiations and the unresolved nature of core issues kept investor sentiment subdued.

Geopolitically, the diplomatic talks in Geneva yielded no breakthrough. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi maintained a hardline stance during meetings with European counterparts, stating that Iran would not compromise under external threats and demanded Israel cease its military actions and accept responsibility. That fragile optimism was shattered over the weekend when the U.S. launched airstrikes on an Iranian nuclear facility, sending shockwaves through an already tense market.

On the trade front, progress remained minimal. The EU is attempting to establish a 10% reciprocal tariff mechanism aligned with the U.S. and U.K., but no agreement has been reached. Meanwhile, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney warned of retaliatory tariffs on U.S. steel and aluminum by the end of July unless Washington shows flexibility. In Asia, Japan cancelled a major bilateral security dialogue with the U.S. due to frustration over American defense and trade policies, further highlighting the deteriorating relations between the two nations.

Looking ahead, weakening investor risk appetite and growing uncertainty are likely to weigh on global financial markets. With participants largely in a wait-and-see mode, increased volatility is expected in the days ahead.

Weekly Technical Forecast

EUR/USD
The euro moved lower within a consolidation range last week.

• Trend Outlook: Neutral
  
• Downside: Support lies at 1.1443 — as long as this level holds, the pair may resume its upward move. A break below would shift the trend bearish.
  
• Upside: A breakout above 1.1630 would confirm a continuation of the uptrend from 1.1076 and open the path to 1.1912.

USD/JPY
After a brief dip, the pair resumed its prior rebound with a choppy upward trend.

• Trend Outlook: Bullish
  
• Downside: Support at 142.73 — holding above this level keeps the uptrend intact. A break below would turn the outlook neutral.
  
• Upside: A move above 148.65 would confirm a broader upside breakout.
  

GBP/USD
The pound pulled back from the 1.3632 high last week, confirming a short-term top.

• Trend Outlook: Neutral
  
• Downside: Support lies at 1.3381 — a break below could lead to a deeper decline toward 1.3248.
  
• Upside: The pair must break above 1.3632 to restore bullish momentum.
  

USD/CHF
The pair rebounded from 0.8054 but struggled near the 0.8214 resistance level.

• Trend Outlook: Neutral
  
• Downside: A drop below 0.8054 would confirm a bearish continuation.
  
• Upside: A break above 0.8214 would restart the bullish trend and target the key 0.8476 resistance.
  

AUD/USD
The Aussie drifted lower last week with weak momentum.

• Trend Outlook: Bearish
  
• Downside: MACD bearish divergence on the daily chart suggests a top near 0.6550. A break below 0.6340 would target the 0.5911 low.
  
• Upside: A recovery above 0.6550 would revive the rally from 0.5911.
  

USD/CAD
The pair rebounded from the 1.3538 low, supported by a bullish MACD convergence on the daily chart.

• Trend Outlook: Bullish
  
• Upside: If the pair breaks and holds above 1.3861, it could test the interim high at 1.4016.
  
• Downside: A fall below 1.3538 would negate the bullish outlook and resume the downtrend.