Global Market Snapshot 26th May 2025

At the start of last week, global financial markets were focused on the potential downgrade of U.S. sovereign credit by Moody’s. However, sentiment quickly shifted as trade war concerns returned to the spotlight. On Friday, U.S. President Donald Trump announced he was considering imposing tariffs of up to 50% on European Union goods, citing stalled negotiations between the two sides. The announcement sparked significant market volatility: major U.S. indices plunged, European markets were similarly hit, and risk-off sentiment surged across asset classes.

In the forex market, safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese yen and Swiss franc gained sharply, while gold prices spiked, reflecting investor anxiety over escalating geopolitical tensions. Looking ahead, ongoing trade frictions between the U.S. and Europe are likely to dominate market sentiment this week. Should the two sides return to the negotiation table and make progress toward resolving their differences, global financial markets could regain some much-needed confidence.

Weekly Trend Forecast

EUR/USD
The euro continued its upward trajectory last week, consolidating before resuming its climb.

• Outlook: Bullish
  
• Resistance: 1.1575 — a breakout above this level could trigger a new wave of gains.
  
• Support: 1.1250 — if this level fails, the pair may enter a consolidation phase. A further break below 1.1063 would turn the trend bearish.
  

USD/JPY
The dollar weakened further against the yen, confirming that the recent rebound has ended.

• Outlook: Bearish
  
• Support: 139.87 — the next target on the downside if bearish momentum continues.
  
• Resistance: 146.22 — a recovery above this level would neutralize the downtrend. A further break above 148.64 would shift momentum decisively to the upside.
  

GBP/USD
The British pound extended its gains last week, confirming the continuation of the uptrend from the 1.2706 low.

• Outlook: Bullish
  
• Resistance: 1.3748 — a breakout here would open the path to 1.3843.
  
• Support: 1.3387 — a break below this level may weaken bullish momentum and shift the trend into consolidation.
  

USD/CHF
The dollar continued to decline against the Swiss franc, nearing key support.

• Outlook: Bearish
  
• Support: 0.8183 — if breached, the pair may test the 0.8037 low. A break below that would accelerate the downtrend.
  
• Resistance: 0.8335 — a rebound above this level would suggest consolidation is taking hold.
  

AUD/USD
The Australian dollar consolidated for much of the week before rallying near key resistance.

• Outlook: Neutral
  
• Resistance: 0.6515 — a breakout would confirm the resumption of the uptrend from 0.5913, targeting 0.6686.
  
• Support: 0.6339 — a break below this level would shift the trend bearish.
  

USD/CAD
The U.S. dollar broke below key support at 1.3746 last week, confirming a renewed downtrend.

• Outlook: Bearish
  
• Support: 1.3415 — the next downside target.
  
• Resistance: 1.3887 — a break above this would neutralize the current bearish momentum. A further move above 1.4017 would confirm a bullish reversal.