Global Market Snapshot 30th June 2025

Last week, following the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran, U.S. equity markets rallied strongly. Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices closed at all-time highs on Friday. This surge in risk appetite was accompanied by growing expectations of a U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cut later this year, with September emerging as a likely starting point for a monetary easing cycle. As a result, the U.S. dollar came under sustained selling pressure.

Beyond short-term speculation, structural concerns are beginning to erode the dollar’s longer-term appeal. Investors are reassessing the greenback’s central role in the global financial system amid persistent inflation, high fiscal deficits, and erratic policy shifts. This erosion of confidence is reflected not only in short-term trading behavior but also in long-term reserve allocation and cross-border capital flows.

Looking ahead, safe-haven currencies such as the euro and Swiss franc may take center stage. If the upcoming tariff truce negotiations in early July stall or collapse, market demand for safety could intensify—accelerating capital rotation away from the dollar and toward alternative currencies.

Weekly Technical Forecast

EUR/USD
The euro resumed its upward trend last week and shows no signs of topping out.

• Trend Outlook: Bullish
  
• Upside: Targeting resistance at 1.1916.
  
• Downside: Support lies at 1.1587. As long as this level holds, bullish momentum remains intact. A break below would shift the trend to neutral, with consolidation likely.
  

USD/JPY
The pair briefly rallied to 148.02 before retreating.

• Trend Outlook: Neutral
  
• Upside: A sustained break above 148.02 would extend the uptrend from 139.86, with the next target at 151.22.
  
• Downside: Support lies at 142.08. A break below could reintroduce bearish pressure and potentially lead to a retest of the 139.86 low.
  

GBP/USD
The pound rallied to a high of 1.3771 last week before pulling back.

• Trend Outlook: Neutral
  
• Downside: Support lies at 1.3589. Holding above this level keeps the bullish structure intact. A break below would tilt the trend bearish.
  
• Upside: A breakout above 1.3771 would resume the uptrend, with a target at 1.3977.
  

USD/CHF
The pair continued its downtrend, breaking below former support at 0.8053.

• Trend Outlook: Bearish
  
• Downside: Targeting 0.7701 in the near term.
  
• Upside: Initial resistance is at 0.8080. A break above this level may lead to a period of consolidation. However, unless price reclaims 0.8249, the broader trend remains bearish.
  

AUD/USD
The Aussie fell sharply to 0.6371 before rebounding to 0.6563.

• Trend Outlook: Neutral
  
• Downside: Key support is at 0.6371. As long as it holds, the potential for continued upward movement remains.
  
• Upside: A break above 0.6563 would confirm the continuation of the rally from 0.5913.
  

USD/CAD
The pair briefly tested 1.3798 before pulling back and entering a consolidation phase.

• Trend Outlook: Neutral
  
• Upside: A breakout above 1.3798 would extend the rebound from 1.3538 and aim for the key resistance near 1.4011.
  
• Downside: Support remains at 1.3538. A break below this level would shift the trend to bearish.